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新冠病毒

The worst of the pandemic may be peaking in the Baltimore area

By all measures the coronavirus pandemic continues to take a massive toll, burdening individuals and straining the health care system.

But the state has fared better than many for much — though not all — of the pandemic when it comes to severe disease and lives lost, data and analysis shows.

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感染仍然很高,周五报道了9,986例新病例,预计更多的人将测试Covid-19的阳性,因为在不久的将来有高度传染性的Omicron变体。但是数据和预测表明,病例可能已经达到顶峰,而大流行的最差可能比其他地方快一点。

约翰·霍普金斯大学急诊医学系副教授埃里·克莱因(Eili Klein)说:“不久,该州将在病例中呈指数下降,随后导致住院下降。””但是,这留下了很多人在医院。我们仍然需要竭尽所能限制利差,因为我们希望该数字尽可能快地下降。”

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Klein said there are certain areas of the state, such as its eastern and western regions, that won’t peak at the same time as the Baltimore and Washington, D.C., metropolitan areas — meaning they will face prolonged hospital crises. People there also are less likely to be vaccinated, he said.

马里兰州通常仍会感受到12月与三角洲变体相关的Covid-19案例的激增的影响,这是比现在主导的Omicron变体更具毒性的冠状病毒菌株。

他说,从9月到1月,该州的死亡率远低于周围国家。在过去的两个星期中,这种情况发生了变化,因为三角洲病例的激增转化为更多的住院和死亡。它们通常会在几周内滞后感染。

On Friday, the state added 69 additional deaths to Maryland’s count of COVID-19 fatalities.

克莱因说,随着Omicron变体接管,马里兰州的指标应比其邻居早早达到顶峰。

这就是模特在华盛顿大学独立健康研究中心的健康指标与评估研究所所显示的。

They show Maryland’s cases already peaked at the start of the month, about five days ahead of the nation’s peak. Hospitalizations should peak in the next week in the state and deaths should follow just after, also just ahead of the country, the models predict.

该研究所卫生指标科学教授阿里·莫克达德(Ali Mokdad)说:“他们将达到顶峰,并在上升的速度下降。”

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莫克达说,大多数人最终仍将被感染,最大的担忧应该是减轻严重案件。这意味着努力应专注于疫苗接种和助推射击,以防止人们需要住院。

Mokdad说,一线医疗机构需要注意和支持,因此他们可以通过剩余的激增继续提供护理。此外,公共卫生领导者需要为下一波浪潮做准备,并有足够的测试和疫苗接种供应和升级的面具。

And government leaders ought to do what they can to ensure the basic functioning of the country by keeping store shelves stocked and other necessities available, he said.

Mokdad expected treatment for coronavirus eventually to be like that for the flu, which requires regular vaccinations for the public and surge capacity in hospitals.

他说:“我们永远不会因流感而关闭,我们不会急于测试自己或了解什么样的流感。”“我们服用疫苗。…如果您接种疫苗,您将不太可能去医院。如果不是,那么您就会冒险。”

马里兰大学医学院疫苗开发与全球卫生中心主任凯瑟琳·诺兹尔(Kathleen Neuzil)博士说,请注意,现在谁死于Omicron变体。

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她在巴尔的摩马里兰大学校长布鲁斯·贾雷尔(Bruce E.

That is in large part due to employer and school-based mandates, she said — though her comments came just ahead of Thursday’s ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court striking down a federal mandate that companies with more than 100 employees require vaccinations.

Those now suffering severe disease are largely unvaccinated, or vaccinated but elderly or suffering with weakened immune systems or from major health conditions, Neuzil said. The vaccines help, but just don’t work as well for them, she said.

Maryland also has good data reporting compared to other states and countries, though Neuzil added that unless genomic sequencing is done in every case it can be difficult to understand the cause of the latest surge.

Maryland health officials have said they look at the genetic makeup to determine the variant in about 10% of positive cases reported.

On the ground in hospitals, which have reported severe strain on diminished staff, there also may be some reason for optimism.

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Dr. John Chessare, president and CEO of Greater Baltimore Medical Center in Towson, noted in recorded remarks that many public health researchers believe that omicron has hit its peak and indeed cases are dropping at GBMC.

截至周三,该医院正在治疗76名Covid-19患者,比前一周的88例患者。Chessare说,上周有十几个在重症监护室中死亡,两人都没有免疫。

他说,由于许多人患有轻度或没有症状,或者在家接受测试时,案件被严重低估了全国范围。但是他希望这个数字很快开始迅速下降,医院的缓解将随之而来。

“Will there be a new variant that pops up somewhere across the world that is resistant to the vaccine in the United States of America, such that we might get another wave? We don’t know that,” Chessare said. “The best way to stop a new variant is to get everybody immunized.”

Data from the Maryland Hospital Association shows the state is still in the throes of the latest surge — and the state’s hospitalization rate remains above the national rate.

从3月初到5月下旬,马里兰州的利率又通过了全国利率。现在,马里兰州的费率接近每10万人58人,而全国人民税率约为每100,000人44人。

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根据医院协会的数据,这使该州的共同住院率比美国平均水平高31%。

该协会的主席兼首席执行官鲍勃·阿特拉斯(Bob Atlas)表示,在马里兰州,约有75%至85%的在马里兰州住院的人是未接种疫苗或不足的。

他确实指出,最近几天的病例和测试案例的阳性案例率略有下降,住院下降。

State data shows there were almost 10,600 new cases and 63 deaths reported in Maryland Thursday. Hospitalizations dropped by 34 people to 3,428, still far above the previous pandemic peak in early 2021 of 1,952.

阿特拉斯谈到住院时说:“现在说我们已经达到顶峰还为时过早。”该协会“无法推测未来。在大流行过程中,所有医院的共同患者仍然比任何时候都多,并且所有能量都致力于照顾他们以及所有需要医院级护理的患者。”

Atlas said Maryland has the 7th highest rate of COVID hospitalization of any state. Neighboring Washington, D.C., ranks 1st, Delaware ranks 2nd and Pennsylvania ranks 6th.

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他说:“我们继续敦促公众接种疫苗和增强,以正确戴上好口罩,并保持与他人的空间距离。”


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